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2017 rally not to repeat anytime soon, go stock-specific now

In the second half of the year, with the locate being low-toned, “youve seen” a turn of affections on the urban area, says Pankaj Tibrewal, Equity Portfolio Manager- Senior Vice President, Kotak Mutual Fund. Excerpt from an interview with ETNOW. Are we in for a turn in the sentiment for world markets and their own economies or are we in for a long winter? We will get these bouts of volatility, spikes for a couple of days and that is about it? The second one of the purposes of your question are responding. It is a somewhat longer grind. The commentary coming out of company managements is not very encouraging in the near term. Likewise the biggest issue is the transmission of liquidity. We pictured a gradation yesterday where RBI transferred Rs 1.76 lakh crore, a part of which is reserves and a part of which is the one-time stockpiles which went transferred to the government and will help in transmission. But the biggest issue is that M0( all physical money including coinage) which is Rs 28 lakh crore, is not expanding and the correlation between M0 and M3( coin ply) has broken down. We need to do something both from the government and the RBI side to make sure that credit lending and credit creation start back in the economy. Over the last 10 eras, as a team we met a lot of firms across manufactures. I must admit that pessimism is slightly more now. Panic on the Street is slightly more than actual reality. In a panic statu, the market has ignored two things. One, the monsoons after a very long time has been very good and rainwater Idols have smiled on us. In the three southern moods which is Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and Telangana, dams are full after a long time. What it means is that part of kharif would be seeing good demand but it affords a good visibility for wintertime cultivates which is rabi and this was not the case last year. In the second half of the year, with the cornerstone being low-pitched, there could be a turn of sensibilities on the agricultural surface. Second, pockets of industries continue to do well. We spoke to a lot of pipe fellowships. They seem to suggest that the demand momentum which they determined in the first quarter continues to grow. The contingency is similar in paint and fertiliser companies. The pockets of slowdown are the usual suspects which is auto, auto ancillaries, buyer staples. Customer sturdies amazingly applied a very strong commentary as well and the first fourth numbers of most of the consumer sturdy musicians were very strong and that commentary continues. So on the one paw, people are grumbling of consumers not buying a Rs 5 biscuit containers and on the other hand, anything to do with summertimes flew off the shelves — be it ACs, refrigerators and even a produce like bathe machine pictured a very strong growth. One needs to approach this market from a more bottom-up stock selection perspective. I ponder sectoral topics may or may not play out, but we are seeing possibilities emerging in individual companies.If you think groceries are vanquished down and fundamentals are ahead and premiums will catch up, how are you maximising it? Are you looking at buying risk, are you looking at high-pitched beta names? Our view is that we would not look the 2017 rally reciting anytime soon. Also we have been averse to business leverage and that philosophy continues. I believe that investment is not as difficult as it is made out to be. If you invest in good quality business with decent sector balance sheets and cash flows over a medium to long term you are reinforced and we do not see that philosophy varying. Also, in this environment, the bigger will become bigger and we expect consolidation in many sectors. We have already seen that in telecom, cement and aviation. We are seeing that in a way in financial services and many other sectors which are represented by mid and smallcaps. You would investigate the top three-five guys requiring a larger part of market share. It is not make sense to go and add data where balance sheet and cash flow are fractured and there may be stints of volatility, they may go up for sometime but if such structures of the business model is not good, they may face collisions again. I imagine the crux of the investment at least at Kotak is “protect the bottom, protect the downside, the wins will take care of themselves. ” We do not see that changing in this environment too. Given the kind of setup you have described, what would you be bullish on currently? What various kinds of approach or approach would you recommend at a time like this? The sectoral preferences are the same — private sector corporate lenders. We have taken a slightly different call this time, that speculations will outshine consumption and hence we are underweight consumer staples but on the speculation surface we are overweight on cement, industrial and uppercase goods. Also we are approaching the pharma sphere on a stock-specific basis. We continue to have an underweight stance on IT and on the consumer non-discretionary, we continue to have few identifies where we accept the runway for proliferation is long. That is a mix of our portfolio. On the midcap slope, “weve been” positive on specialty chemical room and we continue to be overweight on it. Also, on the tube surface and the dwelling building product area, we learn the unorganised to organised topic play out very strongly in this environment and we continue to be positive on few epithets there. What would you remain underweight on? I noticed you have mentioned IT but you have also mentioned auto. What is the strategy there? We believe that in IT, the pricing push continues to be very steep. In automobiles, the prices have corrected 30 -4 0% from their flower, but the valuations have not. The inventory degrees continue to be at slightly elevated levels and the sector is stuck between slowdown in demand and regulatory conversions which will take another six to 12 months in our opinion. We will wait for valuations to become more attractive before jump-start into the sector and enveloping our underweight. Within the banks, How would you shrink it down further within the private sector reputation? On the banks side, for a long period of time, our predilection has been with private sector organizations lenders and more so right now with private sector corporate lenders because we consider a sharp earnings recovery this year and next year led by lower provisioning and lower credit penalty for a few of them. Also, we continue to have an overweight posture on assurance, both life and general and we repute the under penetration story is playing out beautifully out there. On the consumer discretionary side, except autoes, we continue to have some exposure to the labelled retailing surface, the mattress companies and a few of the other mentions which are linked to the per capita 2000 GDP. We believe there is a hockey stick playing out in some of those topics. Some of the consumer durable appoints are part of our portfolios and we have seen these companies report very strong solutions in the final quarter. We be suggested that the nature electrification is going, the demand for a lot of these refers would be there in the coming years.

Read more: economictimes.indiatimes.com