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What to buy/avoid: Three experts answer

Some of Dalal Street’s producing money overseers Navneet Munot, CIO, SBI MF, Nilesh Shah, MD, Kotak Mutual Fund and Anand Radhakrishnan, CIO, Franklin Templeton Mutual Fund, speaking at an online contest organised by IMC on various issues related to the markets and the economy. The chit-chat was moderated by Gautam Trivedi, co-founder of Nepean Capital. On GDP Falling, Grocery RisingAnand Radhakrishnan: The equity marketplace is wearing a doubled hat at this occasion. On one pas, it is looking at extremely short-term growth trends and on the other hand, it is looking at what can happen over the next 1-2 years. The initial fear in the first phase of lockdown was fear of the unknown. This led to striking response from both market participants as well as overseers of their own economies. I think there is still a long way to go for recovery. Embedded in the current optimism is the idea that a answer will be found for the present pandemic over a reporting period next 3 quarters and that is important to sustain the current optimism.Nilesh Shah: We have identified a lot of factors at play in the market. Valuation has expanded based on lower cost of capital, or lower return of capital in alternative assets. At the bottom of the pyramid, in penny assets, there is new investor money hasten in and based on our experience of the past it’s driven by spurts rather than fundamentals and the combined effects of various. If I was set to summarise, data is about the past and world markets is dismissing the future. Foreign Inflows amid Fed-induced Liquidity Navneet Munot: A huge part of the rally has to do with liquidity and program response that has been released. As the crisis is unprecedented, the response too has been unprecedented to say the least.$ 3 trillion has been printed in 3-4 months, buying a wide rectified of resources and making strong counseling that even if inflation lopes, we are not in a hurry to increase interest rates. And that is the case with virtually all other central bank in all countries of the world. On top of the fiscal stimulus. When you settled so much money in the system, there is a demand shock. You cannot consume much and fund reaches financial markets. That’s the reason all asset class — bails, equities, amber — are moving in tandem. Liquidity played a key role. This has also led to a large number of brand-new investors, relatively inexperienced ones coming into the equity market. All bull market begin on peak pessimism. Robinhood Traders and Mutual FundsNavneet Munot: The brand-new investors make money in the first phase of the market. But my feel is that over a period of time, they would realize that it’s better to spend time abroad and grant money to professional coin administrators. The long-term trend clearly suggests that. Nilesh Shah: Online brokerages are not our competitors. They will help us expand our investor cornerstone as they volunteer simplicity of investing and the mutual fund industry can draw lessons from them. All online brokerages are also distributors of mutual funds. Many of them responsibly kept mutual funds as gives to retail investors. Anand Radhakrishnan: I have one word of caution to most of the new people entering business — they cannot be called investors as many of them are merchants. The retail percentage of magnitude in the lockdown interval has gone up dramatically, is proposed that on a day-to-day basis, many of them are trading and not looking at it from an investment point of view. While at one hand, we can rejoice that more people are opening broking reports, we may be opening a problematic situation where people have additional season and can make a quick buck. We are seeing mid, small-minded and penny covers move up, intimating a gradual is built of retail trading mentality than investment mentality. Of track, at some stage this will have to change. Advice to Cash-strapped GovernmentAnand Radhakrishnan: Give big tax breaks for buying residences as currently what we are giving is extremely low and has been static for a long period of time. Home buying is a large driver of the economy including creation, mortgages and various dwelling makes. We are seeing an extremely bearish market in real estate properties and to revive housing, we need to give particular tax breaks. This may look like tax breaks initially but the work of work will more than sought compensation for lower taxes. That will help kickstart the economy and grant incomes to the government. Second is strategic divestment without worrying about tax revenues and not wanting to cut back on spend. Key option is to sell non-core financings and they were talking about taking LIC public but we see very little progress with a good deal of obstacles. Unless we procreate immediate progress, the government won’t be able to access monies in a manner which does not expand the deficit. Strategic divestment including divesting stake in government impounded organisations like SUUTI should help them buy buffer till the time tax revenues get buoyed. Government’s Weak Privatisation RecordNilesh Shah: We it is necessary monetise government resources so that we have money available for spending. Government has 9,404 properties under the Custodian of Enemy Property Act. This was acquired during the 1965 conflict with Pakistan. Pakistan did this on their slope and we did it on our line-up. Pakistan liquidated all dimensions in 1971. We are still 49 times behind them. These belongings were valued at Rs 1 lakh crore a few years back. Maybe this is the best time to remove encroachment, clear entitlement deficiency, liquidate these belongings and raise Rs 1 lakh crore to money your use. The second thing is to bring India’s savings from “tijori”( safe) to white economy. In the last 21 times, we have imported $ 376 billion of amber on a net import basis, eliminating amber jewellery exportation. We all know golden slipping becomes a reality. WGC imagines 25,000 tonnes of gold lies with Indian households, most of it is in safes and fruitless. Gold financing firms have made a small beginning in monetising it but we need to magnify that. If we can come out with a very interesting scheme, that will help. Sectors to Invest/ AvoidNavneet Munot: I imagine negative real proportions, falling difference between rental yield and mortgage pace and incapacity of developers to hold on to inventory and rates are pate lower and genuine expect will come back to residential real estate. I too expect NRI assets be coming, handed where resource expenditures are and interest rates are. There is a possibility there is revival of interest in residential real estate properties. A little longer term, data is new oil. Digital India is a reality. Indian are the largest buyers of data in the world. E-health, E-education, leisure have enormous potential. Chemicals and electronics have support from the government. Nilesh Shah: We believe there are two sectors where there are long-term growth openings namely chemicals and contract manufacturing. There are many companies that want to buy chemicals from India and now we are seeing longer term contracts coming to one company. We have encountered emergence of companies in consumer durables and consumer items like mattresses which were bought by world labels and distributed in India. Valuations are expensive but from a growing point of view, there is huge extent of rise. Contract manufacturing is a 20 -2 5-year-old raise storey acquiring authority does not intervene. Anand Radhakrishnan: Currently the most hated sector is fiscals. We have discovered expansion of financial services in 2018. We have shrinkage and big devastation of value after IL& FS and Yes Bank. The area is rapidly consolidating with strong going stronger and they will gain market share in 5-7 years with the weak being eliminated. Some NBFCs will never come back. This is a 4-5-year play. Hike in NPAs due to Covid and standstill slipping to NPA. If the hope of the economy is true, it will slip to small and medium-sized enterprises.

Read more: economictimes.indiatimes.com

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