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Donald Trump Jr. and Kimberly Guilfoyle just sold their Hamptons house for $8 million – nearly double what they paid for it in 2019. Look inside the 7-bedroom home.

donald trump jr hamptons house The Bridgehampton home sits on 3.9 acres in a gated parish.

Donald Trump Jr. and Kimberly Guilfoyle only sold their Hamptons live for $8.14 million. The 7-bedroom waterfront home in Bridgehampton comes with a scorching outdoor puddle, spa, and waterfall. The couple is now looking for a home in Florida. See more floors on Insider’s business page.

Donald Trump Jr. and his girlfriend, former Fox News emcee Kimberly Guilfoyle, just sold their house in the Hamptons for $8.14 million, a source close to Guilfoyle confirmed to Insider.

donald trump jr hamptons house Trump and Guilfoyle’s bought the Bridgehampton home approximately 2 years ago.

The couple nearly doubled the return on their be invested in the Bridgehampton home, which they purchased for $ 4.4 million in the summer of 2019.

The home was not publicly listed, according to Page Six, who first reported the distribute. James Giugliano and Shawn Egan of Nestseekers brokered the agreement, per the Page Six report. The workers didn’t immediately is submitted in response to Insider’s request for comment.

Trump Jr. and Guilfoyle, who have been together since at least June 2018, are now looking for a home in Florida as the rest of the Trump family migrates to the Sunshine State, the source close to Guilfoyle said.

Kimberly Guilfoyle and Donald Trump Jr. Guilfoyle and Trump Jr. at a Ted Cruz Rally in Texas in October 2018.

In January, virtually the part Trump family cleared moves to Florida.

Former president Donald Trump and Melania Trump left Washington, DC hours before Biden’s inauguration and took up residence in Trump’s Mar-a-Lago club .

The day before, The Wall Street Journal reported that Ivanka Trump and Jared Kushner signed a lease for a “large, unfurnished unit” in a Miami Beach condominium building for at least a year. This move came after the couple bought a $32 million mint in December on a high-security private island in Miami that’s known as the “Billionaire Bunker.”

Page Six reported at the time that Tiffany Trump was also looking for property in Miami.

Trump Jr. and Guilfoyle’s sale of their Bridgehampton pad comes as the Hamptons real-estate market has boomed during the course of its pandemic.

donald trump jr hamptons house

The exclusive deprive of hamlets on New York’s Long Island has learnt bidding crusades and residences flying off the market at record rates, Insider’s Juliana Kaplan recently reported.

The 9,200 -square-foot Bridgehampton home sits on virtually four acres in a private gated parish, according to a onetime lean.

donald trump jr hamptons house

The living room peculiarities a fireplace and high-pitched ceilings .

A formal dining room sits at least eight parties.

donald trump jr hamptons house

Source: Corcoran

Another dining province is just off the kitchen.

donald trump jr hamptons house

Source: Corcoran

The spacious, farmhouse-style kitchen is divided by a large island.

donald trump jr hamptons house

Source: Corcoran

The kitchen produces out to a screened porch overlook the consortium.

donald trump jr hamptons house

Source: Corcoran

The home’s captain suite has its own sitting locality and private deck.

donald trump jr hamptons house

Source: Corcoran

The report contains six other bedrooms in addition to the master suite.

donald trump jr hamptons house

Source: Corcoran

And they each come with an en-suite bathroom.

donald trump jr hamptons house

In total, the dwelling has 10.5 full showers and one half-bathroom.

The lean photos show numerous sitting localities throughout the house.

donald trump jr hamptons house

Source: Corcoran

A game room with a billiards table opens up to one of the decks.

donald trump jr hamptons house

Source: Corcoran

The residence is minutes from the sea and includes sizable mahogany and stone patios, a hot puddle and spa with a cascade, and waterfront access to a 25 -acre pond.

donald trump jr hamptons house The Bridgehampton home sits on 3.9 acres in a gated community.

Source: Corcoran

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The Antilibrary: artists’ books and our bizarre future

After almost a month of total silence on the blog, I’m very happy to publish an interview with Oscar Salguero, a researcher, critical designer and independent book curator based in Brooklyn, where he runs The Antilibrary.

Alexandra Daisy Ginsberg
Dougal Dixon, After Man: A Zoology of the Future

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The Flooer as imagined by Dougal Dixon in his book After Man: A Zoology of the Future. Photo: Breakdown Press

The Antilibrary looks closely at artists’ books published by independent publishers to identify atypical trends and future attitudes. Its material of choice tends to be very speculative, decidedly science-inspired, slightly bizarre and never without a touch of humour. The books selected by the Antilibrary are both works of art and harbingers of cultural mutations and ideas that might (or might not) seem almost normal in the near future.

So far, The Antilibrary has explored how the Trump clique has been using books as myth-making instruments and how artists and designers have imagined different modalities of interspecies relationships. In Spring 2021, the Antilibrary will be at the Center for Book Arts NY with Interspecies Futures [IF], a survey of books by bio artists and speculative designers on the topic of conceptual interspecies interactions.

I met Oscar in one of School of Machines, Making and Make-Believe‘s online classes. As soon as he started showing us on screen some of the volumes from his collection about speculative interspecies relationships, I started looking at my massive library with a more critical eye. Artbooks arrive at Casa we-make-money-not-art every week. Yet, I had totally underestimated the power of artists’ books. Oscar, on the other hand, had found a way to explore an exciting theme through a channel I had so far totally underestimated. I decided to interview him about books, speculative zoology, everyone’s favourite GoatMan and sci-fi.

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Interspecies Futures [IF], Posters, 2021

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Presidential Library, Steve Bannon: A Propaganda Retrospective, Analysis

Hi Oscar! Your background is in industrial design but you’re now curating exhibitions of rare artists and designers’ books on the topic of interspecies interactions. How did you go from design to book curating?

My passion for unconventional books was always present.

Design is a field that I entered as a way to challenge myself to think in systems and in a different dimension (3D); but books go further, they engage the 4th dimension and beyond, they allow you to speed up, slow down, transport yourself. Think of the movie Interstellar and the bookshelf scene. Or even Borges’ The Library of Babel… I always picked up books here and there and more so once I started making some money. I could then afford special books like the Codex Seraphinianus or the Holy Bible by Broomberg & Chanarin.

About the concept of curating: More than curating books, I identify patterns.
Although my selection process is always intuitive, I tend to notice connections or waves of ideas being expressed in book format: concerns, musings, reactions, propositions.

Given my background in design and affinity for fiction and forecasting, I began considering these book works not just as artifacts specific of their moment, but rather as evidentiary documents of alternative realities. Portals. Predictive works. Signals in emerging experiments/flows. What does it mean when a group of seemingly disconnected artists, from different parts of the globe, feel compelled to release books on cloud formations, or scent in relation to surveillance?

Additionally, I am fascinated by the idea that, in a frenetic/hyper-digital world, there are still young creatives gravitating to a 2000+ year old physical technology, a format still radically effective. The book as an experience is still decades ahead of Netflix or podcasts: it operates at any speed and requires no updates. The streaming happens in your mind.

Daido Moriyama
The Antilibrary, Human Nonhuman (January 2020)

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After Man: A Zoology of the Future, Dougal Dixon, Japanese version

Your first experiment at curating these books was for a show you set up in your living room called Human Nonhuman. How did you organise an exhibition in a living room, advertise it and get people to come and visit it?

This event began as a challenge posed by my wife: what can you do with these books that you believe are special? Do you let them remain hidden and inactive? It was around late 2019, I was living with a cat for the first time, the news began mentioning wildfires in Australia decimating millions of animals, and there were hints of a new pandemic caused by a virus that potentially originated from wildlife trading. The theme of humans and nonhumans was just too evident. Could I present a selection of books on this? The research took me in unusual directions, for example, I ended up requesting a book on loan from a library in upstate NY, called Space Monkey: The True Story of Miss Baker which is a 1960 children book that narrates the adventures of a squirrel monkey who became the first living being sent into outer space that made it back alive (by the NASA). Curiously, this monkey was an immigrant as she had been taken from the jungles of Peru.

The idea of the living room was by default. We don’t own much furniture and prefer empty space so it already presented the ideal condition for hosting an intimate number of people. All we needed was a couple of tables and a video projector in our bedroom. Regarding the advertisement of the event, I prepared a series of simple Instagram Stories-sized posters featuring human hands caressing different species. We invited either friends or people we had casually met. Some had an interest in books and some not specifically.

Regarding the selection itself, there were artists’ books, student thesis projects, a fashion lookbook and even a faux newspaper on pigeon photographers.

The premise of the show was to present a wide range of positions regarding this topic.
As an experiment I included a system that allowed visitors to label the human-nonhuman interactions according to their estimation, these were divided into: Observing, Collaborating, Exploiting, Becoming.

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Daido Moriyama, Pantomime, 2017

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The Antilibrary, 4 Book selection for We Make $$$ney Not Art (details)

You showed me some of the books from your collection over video conference recently. My library looks drab compared to yours. Could you take us through some of the most interesting books in your collection?

There is no real order or hierarchy on my bookshelf. In some sense navigating it is like an exercise in analog (slow) random-access memory. Four books come to mind though:

Pantomime by Daido Moriyama, 2017 (signed). A rare book depicting fetuses in formaldehyde captured in the earlier freelance years of the Japanese photo legend.

Ruhnama by Saparmurat Niyazov, 2001. A strange hardcover book by Turkmenistan’s former dictator. I found this one at the poetry section of Housing Works, a second-hand bookstore.

Kétamine C13H16ClNO by Zoé Sagan, 2020 (inscribed). A book written by the oldest female AI of the 21st century, originally trained to communicate with dolphins and later achieving higher levels of consciousness on ketamine. In her analysis, she deconstructs all sorts of cultural power algorithms.

Páteř 2116 by Jan Novák, 2017. A typographic sci-fi noir book about an autonomous, intelligent matter-based, subway system gone mad; set in Prague 2116.

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Kuang-Yi Ku, Thesis Book: Hybridizing Medicines – Tiger Penis Project

In Spring 2021, you’ll be showing Interspecies Futures [IF], a new version of that show, at the Center for Book Arts, NYc. Are you still looking for books to add to the final lineup? What criteria do you use to evaluate the interest in a book for the show?

I am basically finished with the selection of 15 books. The main criteria were that each book must:
– Deal with fictional or speculative ideas for future coexistence with other species.
– Be published within the last 5 years.

Many of the examples I have gathered are in response to the recent CRISPR-Cas9 technology/method, which essentially allows humans to alter the genetic code of organisms. Such advances in biotech inspired a whole wave of artists and designers to imagine the next synthetic stages of ‘nature.’ I have books dealing with de-extinction; development of lab-grown animal genitalia (to replace wildlife trade for medicinal uses); creation of artificial lures for pollinators. But I also have some projects that attempt new symbiotic collaborations via sound or some that even propose new forms of bacterial language. There will be a special highlight into the work of Dougal Dixon, the father of speculative zoology, and his Greenworld project (a reportage on a fictional alien biota and the way future humans will alter it), as well as an interview on GoatMan, a research/performance project by Thomas Thwaites in which he attempted to physically become a goat (we might be showing a rare Norwegian version of the book). There is also a plan to show some scientific journals featuring the works of Alexandra Daisy Ginsberg, which signal a recent moment when speculative biodesign intersected the scientific imaginary.

The range is wide, from mutualistic utopias to Frankenstein-like organic disturbances. My hope is that these books will become capsules into alternative visions for the coexistence of humans and other species, as imagined by creatives from the third decade of the 21st century. The Center for Book Arts has been generous enough to give me the chance to materialize this curation as a physical experience but also as a conceptual catalogue, which I am currently developing with Claudia de la Torre from backbonebooks.

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Trump’s Titans: Space Force

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Presidential Library, Posters, 2021

Any other upcoming projects and fields of research you might be working on?

Yes, before the general US elections I presented a 2-year long investigative project called Presidential Library in the spirit of neo conceptual artist Mark Lombardi.

It was inspired by the idea that every US president since Herbert Hoover up until Obama (and even Nixon) has had an official Presidential Library, which essentially preserves and collects documents for the perusal and access of the American people. My selection presents 10 books published by or authored by people related to the Trump administration. The thread between all is a deep-rooted presence of fantasy, propaganda and myth-making. A sort of speculative fiction library from the right.

For example a sci-fi novella by Donald Barr, the father of recent US Attorney General William Barr; a series of time-traveling children books by Rush Limbaugh; a Carroll-esque fantasy story featuring a young Baron Trump written in 1885; a comic depicting Kanye West and Trump aboard a Space Force starship. This is an alternative library that threads a parallel (fantasy) story of the Trumpian years to future journalists. A new version of this was recently presented on January 21, the day after the inauguration of Biden, and it was hosted virtually by Miriam gallery, an experimental bookshop/art space in Brooklyn, NY.

I am also working on a series called the Journal of Therolinguistics, following a short story by Ursula K. Le Guin, titled “The Author of the Acacia Seeds,” where she proposes a future field of study called therolinguistics, or the science of attempting (or pretending) to understand the language of living and non-living entities. First in the series: Books on Rocks.

To wrap up: I see these books as documents reflective of the state of ambitiousness and fragility of the human imagination in the 21st century. In their existence, they have resistance embedded: a resistance to digital manipulation, algorithmic subjugation and narrative distortion. The codex remains the way forward.

Thanks Oscar!

The Interspecies Futures exhibition will run from 16 April until 26 July at the Center for Book Arts in New York.

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Is Bernie Sander’s Meme Sweatshirt Worth the Buy? Yes, It Is.

So, the internet is resetting, as Wired reported late last week. The cause? A charming, Bernie Sanders inauguration meme. Although Wednesday’s inauguration of President Biden and Vice President Harris had memorable moments, one is still standing out.  Here’s what happened.  Before Biden’s swearing, people began to tweet images of Bernie Sanders sitting in a folding […]

The post Is Bernie Sander’s Meme Sweatshirt Worth the Buy? Yes, It Is. appeared first on The Simple Dollar.

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20 Lies & False Claims From The ‘Honest’ 2020 Candidate

Joe Biden’s primary programme importance is that he — by definition — is not Donald Trump. As a result, the Democrats and the media are working overtime to pick out negative elements of Trump’s character — real or hypothetical — and present Biden as the opposite image. They will plead you to “choose compassion over savagery, empathy over self-love, points over nervousnes, and hope over hate.” The suggest, of course, is that Trump represents savagery, ego, nervousnes, and dislike, with Biden representing compassion, empathy, realities, and hope. Such “inverse” beliefs are at the heart of Biden’s effort to replace Trump. Unfortunately for Biden, presumptions are often far away from reality.

Earlier this month, Biden tweeted, “You deserve a chairwoman who tells you the truth.” Again, the ramification being that Trump does not tell the truth, and therefore Biden does.

If we do” deserve a chairman who tells us the truth ,” voters should enthusiastically rebuff Biden. Here are 20 durations this year alone that Biden has lied, in chronological order.

February 11 th

“You see these white supremacists coming out from under the rock-and-rolls. He’s more once to condemn white supremacy, the neo-Nazis. He hasn’t denounced a damned thing.”

Donald Trump has specifically condemned white supremacists and neo-Nazis on multiple occasions.

February 11 th

“This day, 30 years ago, Nelson Mandela ambled out of prison and entered into discussions about apartheid. I had the great honor of meeting him. I had the great honor of being arrested with our U.N. envoy on the streets of Soweto trying to get to see him on Robbens Island.”

Firstly, the prison is actually identified “Robben Island.” Secondly, Biden acknowledged on February 28 th that he was never arrested 😛 TAGEND

“When I said arrested, I meant I was not able to — I was not able to move. Cops, Afrikaners, would not let me go with them. Made me stays where I was. I predict I wasn’t arrested, I was stopped. I was not able to move where I wanted to go.”

February 18 th

“I came back from South Africa trying to see Nelson Mandela and going arrested for trying to see him on Robbens Island. He was in prison.”

See above.

February 23 rd

Speaking with Margaret Brennan on CBS News’ Face the Nation 😛 TAGEND

BRENNAN: South Carolina, though, is your firewall.

BIDEN: You said it, my firewall.

BRENNAN: You need-

BIDEN: I’ve never said it-

BRENNAN: The campaign has said it’s your-

BIDEN: No-

BRENNAN :- firewall.

BIDEN: It’s not fi- I said I’m going to do well there. And I’ll do well there and I’ll do well-beyond there as well.

On February 2nd during an NBC News interview, Biden said “I think I’ll do well in Nevada. And I picture I have a real firewall in South Carolina.”

March 3rd

Biden campaign video suggests that Donald Trump stated “Coronavirus — this is their new hoax.”

These were Trump’s words…if you discount more than 100 statements between “coronavirus” and “hoax.”

” Now the Democrats are politicizing the coronavirus, you know that right? Coronavirus, they’re politicizing it. We did one of the great chores. You say,’ How’s President Trump doing? ’ They lead,’ Oh , not good , not good.’ They have not yet been clue. They don’t have any clue. They can’t even count their votes in Iowa. They can’t even tally. No, they can’t. They can’t count their votes.

” One of my people came up to me and said,’ Mr. President, they tried to beat you on Russia, Russia, Russia.’ That didn’t work out too well. They couldn’t do it. They tried the impeachment deception. That was not a perfect conversation. They tried anything. They tried it over and over. They’d been doing it since you got in. It’s all turning. They lost. It’s all turning. Think of it. Think of it. And this is their new deceive .”

March 15 th

“No, examine, the World Health Organization offered — offered the testing packages that they have available and to give it to us now. We refused them. We should not want to buy them. We should not want to get them from them. We wanted to make sure we had our own.”

The U.S. never refused a test from the World Health Organization, and the U.S. wanted to make its own test for legitimate reasonableness, including the fact that the WHO test kits are “largely meant for less wealthy countries with weaker health systems.”

March 27 th

“When we were talking about early on in this crisis, we said — I said, among others, that, you are well aware, you should get into China, get our experts there, we have the best in the world, get them in so we know what’s actually happening. There was no effort to do that.”

In reality, there were multiple furnishes of assistance, with a very early following one week after China reported the eruption to the World Health Organization.

May 14 th

“We had over 44, if I’m not mistaken, parties from the CDC in China, in China to observe what was going on. The chairman introduced residence the largest part of them and I foresee left only four in place.”

According to Reuters, “The CDC’s China headcount has shrink to around 14 staffers, down from nearly 47 people since President Donald Trump took office in January 2017. ”

May 21 st

“[ Assault-style weapons] have no rationale for being owned by individuals on wall street. They should be prohibited . … From the very beginning you weren’t allowed to have specific artilleries. You weren’t allowed to own a cannon during the Revolutionary War as private individuals .”

According to Politifact, Biden’s campaign “was unable to come up with an example of a ordinance restricting private ownership of cannons, and historians of the period doubt that any existed. To the contrary, there are documented instances of privateers, or privately owned vessels, adjusting skipper with guns during the period.”

May 22 nd

“You get more questions, but I tell you if you have a problem figuring out whether you’re for me or Trump, then you ain’t pitch-black .”

According to FiveThirtyEight, “Polls show about 10 percent of black voters both nationally and in key sway countries with gigantic color electorates are supporting Trump.”

May 22 nd

” I have a record that is second to none. The NAACP has endorsed me each time I’ve run .”

Derrick Johnson, CEO of the NAACP, stated that the organization does not endorse candidates. Surely, due to their tax-exempt status, they are unable to endorse political candidates.

May 22 nd

” I resisted that three strikes and you’re out bill.”

Speaking with Katie Couric on NBC’s Today Show on February 1st 1994, Biden said “What I foundation is a three affects and you’re out, if in fact, they’re very violent crimes- arson, crime, murder, manslaughter. Three ten-strikes in those areas, and you should be out.”

July 22 nd, 2020

” McDonald’s is originating billions of dollars, but here’s the treat. They’ve fixed you all clue noncompete contracts that you cannot go across town to try to get a job at Burger King. And maybe, and I’m not saying you could, but you get 25 cents an hour more. People who are hourly craftsmen are required to sign noncompete:’ I is not “re going away” to any business like the one I’m in to get a raise.’”

According to FactCheck.org, “There is no evidence to support this. McDonald’s says that is not the case. And McDonald’s finished a related practice, disallowing employees from moving from one place inside the company to another, in 2017. ”

July 22 nd, 2020

“We’ve had racists, and they’ve existed, they’ve tried to get elected president. He’s the first one that has.”

As expressed by New York Magazine, “even by the narrowest definition, such as awareness faith in the superiority of the dominant white race and/ or the subordination of others — or cementing those foul-smelling minds with the deliberate chase of programmes designed to promote racist points — the roll of racist chairwomen is still very extensive.”

August 21 st, 2020

“Five million Americans polluted by COVID-1 9. More than 170,000 Americans have died. By far the worst performance of all our countries on Earth.”

These proclamations fail to make population size into account. “In the United Government, there have been 53.26 COVID-1 9 deaths per 100,000 people, compared to 62.4 in the United Kingdom, and 58.61 in Italy. In fact, the United Position isn’t even in the “Top 10, ” with San Marino, Belgium, Peru, Andorra, Spain, Sweden, Chile, and Brazil ranking “higher.””

September 2nd

” When it got up to March, I retained saying, inspection, you’ve got to invoke, and you remember, I thoughts I was the first — I may be mistaken — person calling about the Defense Production Act . … Use that government. Use it to go out there now and don’t wait to talk about the need for us to have masks .”

In fact, several beings discussed consuming the Defence Production Act prior to Biden, including New York City emergency management commissioner Deanne Criswell on February 26 th, and Health and Human Work Secretary Alex Azar on February 28 th.

September 7th, 2020

“Trump has a plan to gut Social Security. If his Social Security plan … actually became rule, the Social Security actuary has said the entire Social Security system will be bankrupt by mid-2 023. ”

According to FactCheck.org, while the Social Security Administration’s chief actuary has analyzed hypothetical legislation which would eliminate payroll taxes, this is not a proposal from Trump, who has not said that he would cut benefits.

September 9th, 2020

“ $400,000 … is more money than I’ve ever made” in a year.

Joe Biden’s tax returns from 2017 and 2018 registered income of “many multiples that amount.” The combined income of Biden and his wife amounted to $ 407,009 in 2013, $11,031, 309 in 2017, and $4,580, 437 in 2018.

September 9th, 2020

” U.S. troops wounded in Iraq and Afghanistan: 53,188. U.S. COVID infected in America: 6,344, 700. U.S. COVID extinctions: 189,506. Military COVID infected: 118,984. Military COVID extinctions: 6,114. Folks, every one of these lives stuff. Every one of these lives left individual behind agonizing .”

According to the Defense Department, 7 service-members have died from COVID-1 9, with roughly 38,500 infected.

September 10 th, 2020

“Under President Trump, U.S. trade deficit has grown. It’s reached an all time high-pitched. Let me say that again. U.S. trade deficit is at an all term high-pitched under Trump in the last three years.”

During Trump’s first expression, the trade deficit was over $513 billion in 2017, roughly $580 billion in 2018, and almost $577 billion in 2019. The trade deficit was higher than these values between 2004 and 2008, reaching its peak of over $763 billion in 2006.

***

“You deserve a chairwoman who tells you the truth.” Then why are you running, Joe?

The Daily Wire is one of America’s fastest-growing republican media companies and counter-cultural outlets for word, sentiment, and amusement. Get inside access to The Daily Wire by becoming a member.

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Even With A Vaccine, The Economy Could Take Many Months To Return To Normal

Once we find a COVID-1 9 vaccine, “peoples lives” can return to regular, right? Economists don’t think so.

Even if the vast majority of the population become immune to the coronavirus tomorrow, resulting economists think it could make six months or more before our economy is back to where it was before the pandemic reach. And if a smaller share of the population became immune, economists thoughts returning to fiscal normalcy would probably take more than a year.

In this week’s edition of our regular survey of quantitative macroeconomic economists, Initiative on Global Marketplace at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, we requested the panel to close their attentions and imagine that a certain share of the population — 25 percent, 50 percentage or 75 percentage — were unexpectedly immune to COVID-1 9. Under each of those hypothetical scenarios, how long would it take to get back to pre-pandemic GDP( from the fourth fourth of 2019 )?

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As you can see, the varying levels of immunity made a big difference in the economists’ assessment of the hurrying of the improvement. The 32 economists who ended the survey results collectively be anticipated that, if 25 percent of the population were abruptly immune to COVID-1 9, there would only be a 30 percentage hazard of GDP returning to its pre-pandemic level by the end of June 2021.

But for a world where 75 percent of the population immediately had immunity to COVID-1 9, their foreshadow was much brighter: The economists reputed, on average, that there was a 56 percent occasion that GDP would be back to its pre-pandemic level by the middle of next year.

But even the consensus projections for the rosiest situation — which is able, in reality, make months or years to develop — weren’t actually that idealistic. In that fantasy world where 75 percent of Americans wake up tomorrow and are certifiably immune to the coronavirus, the economists pictured there was only a 15 percentage opportunity that GDP would return to its pre-pandemic level by the end of 2020, and simply a 35 percentage fortune that GDP would hit that score by the end of the first three months of 2021.

A vaccine, in other words, does not constitute an fiscal panacea.

“It’s important to keep in mind that although a pandemic was what started the whole recession, it’ll make some time to recover even when we get broad exemption, ” said Tara Sinclair , an economist at George Washington University. “It’s not like beings are just going to immediately is going in ordinary financial life.”

The problem, according to Sinclair and others, is that there’s been so much financial shattering that a quick-witted bounce-back is very unlikely, even after the risk of being the virus starts to ebb. Millions of works are unemployed, countless businesses are closed, and for numerous, the tempi of work life may have been permanently reformed. All of that helps explain why even under an unrealistically confident situation, where much of the threat of COVID-1 9 ends overnight, a quick economic recovery might not immediately follow.

Not all of the economists in the survey results were as cynical as Sinclair. If most Americans unexpectedly became immune to COVID-1 9, the virus could be contained relatively quickly, and most people would be eager to return to economic normalcy, according to Gloria Gonzalez-Rivera, an fiscals prof at the University of California-Riverside. She reflects shoppers would be eager to make postponed trips and president back to their favorite restaurants under this scenario, and ravaged manufactures like hospitality and tourism would be able to revive immediately as a result. “We have a large pent-up demand, and the containment of the virus will be the catalyst for this demand to be exhausted, ” Gonzalez-Rivera said.

But Jonathan Wright, an economist at Johns Hopkins University who has been consulting with FiveThirtyEight on the specific characteristics of the survey, told us that while some customers might be eager to spend, it takes a long time for the economy to squeal back into gear after recedings. “Individual parties aren’t inevitably going to go on a expend spree whenever they stop being cooped up at home, and I certainly wouldn’t expect businesses to have that kind of impulse, ” he said. “Business speculation is generally subdued after a recession, and I wouldn’t expect this one to be any exception.” That wants, for example, it could take a while for unemployed workers to find new jobs, if the businesses that managed to weather the crisis are unwilling or unable to quickly proportion up to where they were before the recession.

Optimism is growing for GDP recovery

It wasn’t all bad news, though. In a general feel, the economists have been slowly getting more optimistic about their own economies over meter. Since the last time we invited, on Aug. 10, their mean prognosi for annualized third-quarter GDP growth has improved from +12.2 percentage to +15.4 percent, with a sunnier best-case scenario and a less sullen worst-case scenario. And their +5.8 percentage forecast for fourth-quarter annualized GDP growth in this week’s survey is easily their highest prediction over the period in which we’ve expected the question( since June 8) 😛 TAGEND

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Allan Timmermann, an economist at the University of California, San Diego who has also been consulting with FiveThirtyEight on the survey results, foresaw the uptick in the economists’ GDP predictions — although it was small — was noteworthy. To him, it signaled that either the economists guess the most difficult of the crisis is over, or that they meditate the government will step in if their own economies starts to slow down again.

In calls of jobs numerals, the economists too judged initial weekly unemployment-insurance claims were much more likely to dip below 700,000 for at least a week — in other words, returning to relatively normal quantities from pre-coronavirus seasons — between now and November than they were to return to a elevation above 1.5 million, where they had sat every week from March 21 through June 13.

How will weekly unemployment review sometime in the summer?

Probabilities that weekly initial unemployment insurance benefits claims will fall into various strays between now and the end of October, according to our sketch of economists

Weekly initial allegations is likely to be … Probability <700,000 for at least 1 week 33% Between 70050 >” 1.5 million for at least one week 18

The survey of 32 economists was attended Aug. 21 -2 4.

Source: FIVETHIRTYEIGHT/ IGM COVID-1 9 ECONOMIC SURVEY

That was the good news. However, the economists afford a 50 percentage likelihood for argues poising between 700,000 and 1.5 million every single week for the next couple of months — essentially leaving American enterprise recuperation in a sort of plateau: not as frightful as the job losses from early in the pandemic, but nowhere near a true-blue recovery, either.

What might deepen financial beliefs

We questioned our examine radical what might make their outlook by year’s end better — or worse — than the median calculates they gave us in the survey results. Most of the scenarios we offered surrounding the November election didn’t cause them to move greatly from their existing projections. They were somewhat more likely to think that fourth-quarter GDP growth would be substantially lower if Trump acquired a second term and control of Congress remained unchanged than if Biden won the White House, or if Democrats earned ascendancy of the Senate and the conference of presidents. They also thought that an election result that’s viewed as illegitimate by a majority of the country would be likelier to drag down GDP.

What would shape the economy look better( or worse )?

Average likelihoods that certain scenarios would increase or weaken fourth-quarter GDP growth projections, are consistent with economists

In this scenario, Q4 GDP growth will be …

Scenario Substantially Lower about the same Substantially Higher

Vaccine have been endorsed by Election Day <1% 50% 50% K-1 2 institutions bide open 9 50 41 Democrat limit White House+ Congress 3 81 16 Biden acquires; Congress remains same 3 91 6 K-1 2 class educate practically 19 81 <1 Trump acquires; Congress abides same 22 78 <1 Election viewed as illegitimate 28 72 <1 No additional stimulus 75 19 6

The survey of 32 economists was handled Aug. 21 -2 4.

Source: FIVETHIRTYEIGHT/ IGM COVID-1 9 ECONOMIC SURVEY

But the impact of the election was relatively small compared to other possible ingredients. On the downside, the economists still strongly speculate that an ongoing shortcoming of additional stimulus fund from the federal government will cause serious damage to the economy.( You can read all about why in pretty much every previous installment of our sketch .)

And on the upside, they believe that if K-1 2 institutions reopened and maintained in-person learning through October, it would be a sign that the virus would likely be contained enough for other areas of the economy to improve as well. Meanwhile, if a COVID-1 9 inoculation were approved by the FDA by Election Day, they fantasized there was a 50 percent fortune that GDP growth would be substantially better than their current forecast.

It might seem surprising to political junkies that something as decisive as the presidential election would have a much smaller foresaw influence on their own economies than class reopening or Congress passing added stimulus. Proportion of the issue, Sinclair said, is that if the election has an impact on the economy, it probably won’t be immediate. But she said that in general, there may not be much the next chairperson can do to alter the country’s economic direction, peculiarly if the House and Senate remain divided.

“Economists don’t think about the president as having a lot of strength directly over economic swelling, ” she said. It’s Congress, after all, that gets to decide how the country’s money is devoted. And while that might be somewhat different in a recession caused by a pandemic, it’s harder to predict which presidency would induce better increment quantities. “The way that the economy will glance under these two different candidates is different — no question, ” she said. “But quantitatively, will one clearly raise better GDP lists than the other? I’m not sure.”

Some of these situations give a glimpse into what a better-than-expected late summer and early descend might look like. But it’s too telling that the economists only made a 50 percent likelihood of the economy being substantially improved with a vaccine instantly get approval. That to be compatible with our earlier encounters about the relationship between immunity and economic recovery: Yes, it’s better to have an effective vaccine earlier. But it will still take a long time to undo the damage of this recession, even after the seed stimulate — the virus itself — recedes.

Read more: fivethirtyeight.com

Trump’s Payroll Tax Deferral, Explained

Jobs numbers are improving, and the stock market is doing well, but millions of Americans are still in need of assistance. Federal unemployment benefits expired a few weeks ago. These benefits provided people with an extra $600 a week to help get them through the pandemic. And as work on a new relief bill has stalled, Democrats and Republicans remain far apart on a variety of issues.

The August recess means new legislation isn’t likely until sometime in September, at the earliest. Not wanting to wait, President Trump issued a series of executive orders, including one that would encourage businesses to stop collecting payroll taxes.

[Read: Biden’s Economic Plan, Explained]

Trump’s payroll tax order would mean bigger paychecks for most people — maybe. Overall, there’s a fair amount of uncertainty surrounding the president’s directive. It’s difficult to know if workers will see a bump, since employers may ignore the president’s order.

What are payroll tax deferrals?

Payroll taxes fund things like Social Security and Medicare. Most people get paid every two weeks or once a month, and in each pay period, a set percentage is taken out of paychecks and used to fill the coffers of these entitlement programs.

For Social Security, the percentage is 6.2% for those making up to $137,700 annually. Employees, regardless of income, pay 1.45% of their earnings into Medicare. Employers also pay these taxes. So, what is a payroll tax deferral?

“A payroll tax deferral is just a delay in these payments,” says Beth Logan, enrolled agent for Kozlog Enterprises, LLC. “Normally, the money is withheld from an employee’s paycheck and then paid to the government on their behalf. The money is still due, just not until 2021.”

[Read: 5 Ways to Slash Your Debt During the Pandemic]

Forgiving that potential debt would require legislation from Congress. The president said he’d push to make this happen should he win re-election.

Does this order put money back in the pockets of American workers?

The president’s payroll tax plan has caused a fair amount of confusion in the business community. Why? Well, let’s say a business decides to stop collecting payroll taxes from its workers. The president’s order runs from the beginning of September until the end of the year. What happens at the start of 2021, when payroll taxes are supposed to be collected again? Business owners are left with two unenviable choices if the money is intended to be repaid. They would either decide to try and withhold more from each of their employees’ paychecks until the debt is repaid or find some other way to get their employees to give back the money.

“If businesses stop withholding the money, how will they get the money later?” says Logan. “What if the employee leaves the company? What if the employee’s paycheck is not large enough to cover the amount due? What if the company goes out of business?”

[Read: Will You Get Another $1,200 Stimulus Check?]

These are all questions without answers. Still, many Americans feel the economic pinch and relief — any relief — may be seen as welcome. As of 2018, the median annual household income in the U.S. stood at roughly $63,000. A person making this much could expect to see an additional $325.50 per month ($1,300 total) for the four months beginning in September. This money could go a long way toward helping people pay bills. Seen another way, this $1,300 could also be a huge burden at perhaps the worst time possible.

“If you defer the payment, the employee has more money today, but they are building a debt due,” adds Logan. “If you can have $50 more every biweekly pay period for the next 20 weeks, but then you owe $500 after that time, you are not in a better place. Remember, this will be right after the holidays when many people have larger credit card bills.”

Some logistics still need to be worked out

Recently, a group of business groups, including the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the National Retail Federation, sent a letter to the White House regarding Trump’s payroll tax order. The letter expresses widespread doubt about the plan’s feasibility. The letter’s authors fear saddling their employees with additional debt and, for that reason, said they aren’t likely to participate. Instead, these groups called on the president and members of Congress to return to the negotiating table and create a comprehensive relief package.

Too long, didn’t read?

Democrats and Republicans remain far apart on a new pandemic relief package. President Trump stepped in and issued a series of executive orders, including a payroll tax deferral. Payroll taxes go to fund things like Social Security and Medicare. The deferral could potentially put more money in American worker’s pockets in the short-term, but the short-lived benefit could cause lasting financial harm if that money is expected to be paid back.

Keep reading

We welcome your feedback on this article. Contact us at [email protected] with comments or questions.

The post Trump’s Payroll Tax Deferral, Explained appeared first on The Simple Dollar.

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Yes, Biden is thrashing Trump. But he could still blow it.

America

As recently as one month ago, Donald Trump was merely losing. Now he is flailing, trudging into the Independence Day weekend at the nadir of his presidency, trailing by double toes in recent surveys and in danger of dragging the Republican Senate down with him.

But there are still four months before the election — and any number of ways for Biden to blow it.

Even the best campaigns “can get f—– up, ” said Kelly Dietrich, founder of the National Democratic Training Committee, which improves candidates across the country. “There are a million ways to lose.”

Dietrich, like even the most circumspect beholders of the 2020 expedition, does not predict that Biden will fall apart. But Democrat carry checklists in their brains of the universe of things that could alter the course of the campaign.

Biden might am telling the wrong thing at a debate, or have an awkward moment in an interrogation or at a news conference. Trump’s massive advertising campaign might begin to resonate, hurting Biden’s favorability ratings. Biden’s campaign might make good decisions about spending allocations in the battleground territories, or the coverage of his safarus may sour if he loses even a percentage point or two in referendums. Presidential candidates with large-scale guides have all suffered from less.

And then there are the factors outside of Biden’s control. It is possible that Trump before November will announce a coronavirus inoculation, whether real or imagined. And it is possible that the economy will improve, a prospect Republicans are pinning their hopes to.

So much has changed over such a short period of time — so far, much of it to Biden’s advantage — that it’s absurd to rule out any kind of black swan political event.

Late this week, Les Francis, a Democratic strategist and former representative White House chief of staff in the Carter administration, mailed an email to a circle of friends, including a former congressman and onetime administration officials, with the subject line, “1 23 epoches until the election — and a sobering prospect.”

Right now, he said, “Trump is more than vulnerable.” But then he went on to outline a situation in which Republicans hold down turnout and sufficiently harden Trump’s base.

“Think it can’t work? ” Francis concluded. “Think again.”

Biden’s polling lead over Trump is significant, but not unprecedented. The RealClearPolitics polling average has Biden running ahead of Trump by exactly less than 9 percentage points.

Richard Nixon maintained double-digit leads-in over Hubert Humphrey throughout the summer of 1968, then was necessary to scramble in the drop as Humphrey tided. Twenty years later, following that year’s Democratic National Convention, a Gallup Poll employed Michael Dukakis’ lead over George H.W. Bush at 17 percentage points. As they do today, voters that summer loomed anxious for alteration — before abandoning Dukakis and have voted in favour of Bush.

“Sometimes things can look awfully, very comfortable and it reforms, it can change very, very quickly, ” said Ken Khachigian, a former aide to Nixon and principal speechwriter for Ronald Reagan. “The psyche of the American voter can be affected by happens very dramatically between Labor Day and Election Day.”

If he were go Biden’s campaign, he said, “I’d be feeling pretty good now, but I wouldn’t be buying belonging in Northwest Washington quite yet.”

Perhaps nothing is more indicative of Biden’s thriving advantage than the changes in the frames of cite required to doubt it. Throughout the Democratic primary, Biden was so widely expected to implode that various other centrist nominees premised their part expeditions on the high expectations. Then came the likeness to 2016 — and the ballots that kept Hillary Clinton onward at a same station in information campaigns. After it became clear that Biden was on stronger hoofing than Clinton, the unpersuaded reached back further for examples of catastrophe.

Often, they settle on Dukakis and his scoot against Bush.

In one mode, that election is uniquely on part for Biden. It was during the 1987 primary — his first run for president — that a infringement scandal engulfed Biden’s campaign, with the discovery “hes having” promoted cables from a speech by British Labour Party leader Neil Kinnock.

“If there’s one thing we learned from ’8 8, Biden is capable of screwing up big time, ” said John J. Pitney Jr ., who helped on Bush’s campaign in 1988 and wrote a volume about that election last year.

Pitney, who went on to become an behaving conductor of research at the Republican National Committee, said that in the current race between Biden and Trump, “you’d have to rate[ Biden] as a fateful favorite at this point.”

However, he said, “What we is located within 2016 is even a few cases pitches in a few states can make all the difference, so that’s why Biden shouldn’t be counting on napping through September and October.”

So far, Biden appears not to be. He has raised more money than Trump for two months in a row, and his safarus recently croaked up with its first major advertise offensive of the general election. Biden is taking more paces out of his Delaware home, where he has remained throughout much of the coronavirus pandemic. He said this week that he “can hardly wait” to debate Trump.

Former New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, who raced for president in 2008 and was initially skeptical of Biden’s decision to remain cloistered at home, said that there is “no historical framework for what’s happening, at least in my lifetime.”

“I thought it was a mistake to run a low-key race, ” he said. “But given Trump’s unreliable behaviour and his miscues … for now, Biden is running a perfect race, which symbolizes cause Trump be Trump, let him self-destruct.”

Trump has privately acknowledged he’s losing, and he is desperate to correct course. Republican examine the debates as an opportunity to gain ground, as Bush did following Dukakis’ emotionless response to a question about the death penalty in the event his wife, Kitty, “were raped and murdered.”

And Trump’s campaign is just beginning to swamp the airwaves with negative ads about the presumptive Democratic campaigner. In a campaign not unlike the Lee Atwater-orchestrated assault on Dukakis’ fitness to serve, Trump is airing ads shedding Biden as age-old and muddled, with mental capabilities that are “clearly diminished.”

Phil Angelides, the onetime California state treasurer who was a major fundraiser for Dukakis and who has wrap fund for every Democratic nominee since, was indicated that after Trump’s victory in 2016, “I don’t think we can take anything for granted.”

But Dukakis, he said, was not as well known to voters as Biden. And the economic conditions that time were considerably better than they are now.

“It was a pretty good environment for the incumbent[ party ], unlike today, ” Angelides said.

If anything, the underlying environment may be historically bad for Trump — so bad he may not only get flattened in November, but he might become the proximate start of a wholesale shift in the American electorate.

Seniors and suburban voters, two longtime mainstays of the Republican coalition, are imperfection to Joe Biden. Once-red states suddenly seem competitive, and children of Reagan Democrat are parading in the streets.

“The tectonic layers are changing, said Chris Lehane, a onetime Clinton White House staffer who helped to manage the turmoil enclose that president’s impeachment proceedings. “On June 1, if I had told you that by July 1 the flag would be down in Mississippi, Woodrow Wilson would be off the wall at Princeton, Juneteenth would be a national holiday for companies, Black Lives Matter would manifest the largest , not so silent majority, you would question my normality. That’s all happened in 30 days.”

In the midterm polls, suburban voters revolted against the president. And then came the coronavirus pandemic, which has killed about 130,000 parties in the United Position. Trump’s favorability rating cratered, and his questions were compounded by the civil unrest following the death of George Floyd. While Trump responded with a river of “law and order” rhetoric, streets filled with dissents amid a national reckoning on race.

“The pandemic’s bad enough for Trump, because he BS’d his way through it, ” said Paul Maslin, a top Democratic pollster who worked on the presidential campaigns of Jimmy Carter and Howard Dean. “What George Floyd did is it served to activate this other America to say,’ Wait a hour, who are able we? ’”

It is possible that the election will be close, he said. But “it wouldn’t surprise me if it culminates up between 8 and 10 ” targets — a landslide for Biden.

Dietrich, at the National Democratic Training Committee, said Friday, “Can we have the election this afternoon? We’d wipe the f—— board with him right now. But tallies and impetu, they’re a snapshot … We have absolutely no impression where we’ll be in November.”

Still, he said, “I would rather be us than them.”

Read more: politico.com

Democratic ad makers think they’ve discovered Trump’s soft spot

America

Donald Trump wasn’t halfway through his speech in Tulsa, Okla ., and Democratic ad makers in Washington and New York were already cutting footage for an air raid on the sink president.

They didn’t focus on the president’s puzzled speech about his difficulties descending a ramp or drinking water at West Point, the small crowd size of the Tulsa event or even his use of the prejudiced period “kung flu.” Instead, the ads zeroed in on Trump’s admission that he implored officials to “slow the[ coronavirus] testing down.”

It’s a thoughtfulnes of a growing consensus among Democrats about what kind of pops on Trump are most likely to persuade swing voters — and which ones won’t. As in 2016, ad producers are focusing on Trump’s character. But unlike four years earlier, they are no longer focusing on his courage in isolation — instead they are pouring tens of millions of dollars into ads yoking his behaviour to substantive policy issues smothering the coronavirus, the economy and the civil unrest since the death of George Floyd.

“You can’t chase the Trump clown car, ” said Bradley Beychok, president of the progressive group American Bridge. “Him drinking water and throwing a glass is goofy and may make for a good meme, but it doesn’t matter in the intrigue of things … What parties be concerned about is this outbreak.”

Until recently, it wasn’t perfectly clear what, if anything, cultivated against Trump. From the moment he announced his presidential expedition five years ago , not even “the worlds largest” incendiary fabric seemed to cause significant damage. Not announcing Mexican immigrants “rapists, ” not “blood coming out of her wherever, ” not “grab them by the p—y” — all of who the hell is boasted by Democrats in character-based ads assaulting Trump.

By Election Day, most voters didn’t find Trump honest or trustworthy, according to exit polls. But they had voted in favour of him anyway. And throughout much of his first call, including his impeachment, Democrats struggled to find an anti-Trump message that gained traction.

In their preparations for 2020, outside Democratic radicals spent more than a year surveying voters in swinging districts by phone and online. They convened in-person focus groups and mobilized voters in swing states to keep diaries of their media consumption.

Multiple outside groups said they began to test their ads more rigorously than in 2016, exploiting online boards to identify how likely an ad was to either change a viewer’s impression of Trump or to change how he or she planned to vote. Priorities USA, a major Democratic super PAC, alone expects to test more than 500 ads this round. Priorities, American Bridge and other outside radicals, including organized labor, have been meeting regularly to share internal research and media plans.

“One thing we construed in polling a good deal before the coronavirus eruption is that beings didn’t think he was a strong leader or a good governor, they complained about his Twitter, ” said Nick Ahamed, analytics conductor at Priorities USA. “But they had a hard time connecting those character flaws they watched in him with their day-to-day experience.”

Trump’s response to the coronavirus pandemic and recent dissents, he said, “really made concrete for beings the ways in which his leadership has direct repercussions on them and their loved ones … It’s easier to make ads that talk about his leadership than before the outbreak.”

The advertising elements that appear to work, according to interrogations with more than a dozen Democrat involved in message research, vary from ad to ad. Using Trump’s own paroles against him often researches well, as do charts and other graphics, which serve to highlight Trump’s distaste for science. Voters who swing from President Barack Obama to Trump in 2016 — and who regret it — are good messengers. And so is Joe Biden, whose expres is widely considered preferable to that of a professional narrator. Not simply does he convey empathy, according to Democrats inside and outside Biden’s campaign, but consuming Biden’s voice “helps people think about him as president, ” said Patrick Bonsignore, Biden’s director of paid media.

But the ad makers’ overarching takeaway from their research was this: While Trump may not be prone on issues of character alone, as he demonstrated in 2016, he is vulnerable when person is tied to his program record on the economy and health care.

“What we’ve learned assemble a great deal of previous ordeal … is that quite honestly, people who work in politics can be bad prognosticators in terms of which ad are now working, ” said Patrick McHugh, Priorities’ executive director. “You discover a lot of seasons the videos that start viral on Twitter … you test those ads, and most frequently than not they backlash … they can move voters toward Trump.”

For the negative ad industry, the coronavirus has been a bonanza because it inextricably linked both the economy and health care. On the evening of his Tulsa rally, American Bridge, which had already been working on an ad pummeling Trump for his response to the coronavirus, bookended its fabric with Trump’s acknowledgment that he recommended officials to “slow the tests down.”

Biden’s campaign scurried a video onto social media skewering Trump for the admission. And Priorities USA, the Biden campaign’s wished big-money vehicle, was on TV within days with Trump’s testing statements in the sway states of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona and Michigan.

Trump grumbled on Twitter that “the Democrat are doing totally false advertising.” But after the Democratic National Committee announced its first TV ads since 2016 — one be argued that Trump had “brought America down with him” and the other a more focused critique of his handling of China and busines — even the president acknowledged the effectiveness of the assault.

“On the campaign they’ll say such horrendous things about me. It’s a very unfair business, ” he said on Fox News. “But the ad[ Democrat] did this morning, it’s a great ad for them.”

In one self-evident highway, assailing Trump is less complicated for Democrat than it was four years ago. Trump is the incumbent now, and for the first time he has a record of governance. Pointing out historic financial and public health catastrophes in ads is not rocket science.

Trump’s approval ratings, both overall and on his handling of the coronavirus, have tracked downward since March, when outside Democratic radicals began racing advertisements against him on the issue. A Reuters/ Ipsos referendum last week made public admiration for his response to the coronavirus pandemic at 37 percent, the lowest mark on record.

“There are more voters on the table now than there have been in a long time, ” Becca Siegel, Biden’s chief analytics detective, told POLITICO. “Many, numerous voters who are persuadable and open to hearing these messages.”

And Trump impedes providing food. As outside groups began flowing ads boasting Trump’s “slow the testing down” remark last week, one Democratic strategist said, “Everybody is going to framed this into their ads. This is something beings are going to see on their TVs … for the rest of the cycle.”

, David Doak, a retired longtime Democratic strategist and ad producer, said that while “the race is being decided right now by the negativity towards Trump … what I would do if I were the Biden[ expedition] is to try and fill in that favorability, to strengthen what he’s getting there and move his favorability rating up.”

Jimmy Siegel, an ad maker who worked on Clinton’s 2008 safarus and for Michael Bloomberg this round, said, “You need more positive Biden stuff” — what another strategist called “more Biden cowbell.”

“I think Democrats have had a theory of the case against President Trump for a while, but it actually hasn’t been until the last few months when it started finally coming traction, ” said Mark Putnam, the famed Democratic ad maker who worked for Obama and likewise for Biden before parting rooms with the campaign last year. “He virtually seemed to have some kind of anti-gravity secret that allowed him to consistently shaft things up and hitherto never offer a political rate for it. And with precisely the channel he’s treated one crisis after another in really the worst possible road, it’s eventually capsizing in.”

However, Putnam said, “That’s only half the duel … We likewise have to offer an alternative.”

Unite the Country, the super PAC that Putnam is working with, has released several Tv and digital ads spotlighting Biden’s biography and record on the economy, including a blot featuring Biden’s childhood home in in Scranton, Pa. — ended with the berthed Biden slept in as small children that Putnam’s team procured stored in the attic when they arrived.

And Biden’s campaign itself started work this month to define the former vice president — and Trump — for a general election audience, liberating two ads as part of a $15 million buy, his first major ad offensive of the general election campaign.

Just as the outside Democratic groups did, Biden’s campaign researched those ads with online boards, determining copies that used Biden’s own spokesperson play-act “dramatically stronger” than those use a professional narrator, the Biden campaign’s Bonsignore said.

In one ad, Biden talks about the economy, offering exclusively an implicit differentiate with Trump.

But Biden’s other ad trims a much sharper contrast — staying with Democrats’ relentless criticism of the incumbent. It includes footage of Trump posing with a Bible outside St. John’s Episcopal Church near the White House after officials action protesters from the arena, as well as an image of Trump’s “both sides” reaction to the deadly violence at a white supremacist rally in Charlottesville, Va. — an episode that has gained brand-new resonance amid the racial dissension encircling Floyd’s killing.

The ad withdrew Hillary Clinton’s first ad of the 2016 general election, when Clinton consumed footage of Trump encouraging violence at awareness-raising campaigns rally and teasing a reporter’s disability to make a call for unity.

But there was one significant difference from the 2016 attack on Trump. Four years ago, said Tad Devine, who was a senior strategist to Bernie Sanders’ 2016 presidential safarus, issues of character proved insignificant in general election advertising “because people weren’t voting on it” — there was no connection to draw between Trump’s character and a record of governance that did not yet exist.

This year, he said, “That is absolutely the weakest front for Trump … Things have changed so dramatically, and the connection between the character of the president and that president’s ability to protect people, whether it’s from fiscal fold or pandemic, is really important.”

The contrast handiworks, Devine said, because “people are so desperate to turn the sheet from what’s happening in America today.”

Read more: politico.com

Biden struts as his rivals bite the dust

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MASON CITY, Iowa — Joe Biden’s feeling awfully confident these days.

The former vice president thinks he doesn’t need Barack Obama to prevail the primary. He seemed to mock the ideas that there’s enthusiasm for Elizabeth Warren or that Pete Buttigieg came up with his own schemes. And he professed to be untroubled by the possibility of Mike Bloomberg dropping$ 1 billion to beat him out for the nomination.

Biden is dripping with confidence as he tours Iowa two months before the state’s caucuses, after endless projections his candidacy would have crumbled by now. Instead, those applicants who pitched themselves as Biden alternatives are the ones dropping.

On Tuesday, it was Kamala Harris, who really the summer months had so chagrined Biden on the national debate stage that analysts questioned whether colors boosters would ditch the onetime vice president in droves. Instead, as Biden exited an happening in north primary Iowa, reporters roared questions at him about whether he’d still consider Harris as his running mate.

Earlier this week, Montana Gov. Steve Bullock, who took part in the primary with the promise of captivating moderate voters who reputed Biden was too old and out of touch, folded his presidential campaign.

The chest-thumping two months before the Feb. 3 caucuses is a risky approach for Biden, given the fluidity of the race, especially in Iowa, where Biden has steadily lost anchor in polling since January. And historically, Iowa voters have demonstrated their willingness to meet last-minute alters, falling away from a safe bet or going behind a relative unknown, just before the caucuses.

But despite his wobbly debate accomplishments, lackluster fundraising and oral mishaps, Biden is still standing. And nationally, he’s still producing in the surveys.

“Biden has every reason to be confident about his positioning. He’s been sturdy and somewhat Teflon, ” said Andrew Gillum, a Democrat who fell merely short of acquire Florida’s governorship last year. “Probably feels even better with Harris out. Now the Veepstakes can begin.”

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Addressing worries about the Biden team’s war chest, campaign manager Greg Schultz on Monday tweeted that the campaign had raised more coin in October and November than it did in all of the last quarter. Still, Biden has lagged Buttigieg, Bernie Sanders and Warren in fundraising; the latter two extremely have improved out much larger online grassroots procedures than Biden.

“Biden’s been in the scoot since April, and despite ups and downs, and many errors and blunders, and attacks by many of the other campaigners, he’s still standing as the overall frontrunner, ” said Garry South, a Democratic political consultant from California who long expressed doubts about his home state senator’s presidential bid. “So there’s something to crow about, I would say.”

At least some of Biden’s self-assuredness is about “Medicare for All.” Biden noted in an interrogation Monday on his campaign bus that Democrat doubted his candidacy early on because he would not embrace a terminated remaking of the health systems. Now, he said, other nominees are paying a price in the referendums for espousing Medicare for All and are moving toward his plan.

Biden speedily objected when he was asked to lay out his road in Iowa dedicated his feeling chink with other campaigners, including Warren.

“You don’t be understood that[ exuberance] with Warren. Stop kidding a kidder, OK? Come on, person. Give me a smash, ” Biden said. At first Biden said the enthusiasm for Warren was lacking in Iowa but then he added: “And everywhere, look at the polling everywhere. Tell me — tell me where this great enthusiasm has shown itself? ”

Biden partly ambled back those notes after an phenomenon in Mason City on Tuesday.

“I think there is enthusiasm for her, ” Biden said. “The point I was attaining was that I don’t judge the largest proportion of the feeling in the Democratic Party is for Medicare for All. There is enthusiasm for people who support that . … I don’t think that is where the center of the party is or the left or the right of the party is.”

Another looming threat for Biden is Bloomberg, a billionaire who in a matter of weeks dropped nearly $60 million on television.

When requested on Monday how he felt about Bloomberg’s candidacy, and the possibility that he would expend hundreds of millions of dollars of his own money, Biden virtually shrugged it off.

“Look at the other billionaire, what has he spent, 35 million horses? OK, well, show me what it’s done, ” Biden said, referring to Tom Steyer, who precisely qualified for the December Democratic debate. “You can’t sit and say if someone’s going to spend $200 – $300 — up to a billion of their own money — you can’t say, ‘Don’t worry about that at all.’ But … we’ll see. I don’t discount it, but I don’t devote any time thinking about it. Nothing I can do about that. Zero.”

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Biden’s confidence also remains on his position in South Carolina and a raft of Southern Super Tuesday moods that include more diverse populations and more conservative Democrats. To that tip, Biden said Monday, if he faltered in Iowa, he could still win the nomination. But if he acquired Iowa, Biden indicated he’d be almost unstoppable.

And Biden said he doesn’t see anyone even close to him in South Carolina polling who could rise even if they earned Iowa.

“There is no one else who is in a position to all of a sudden to do what Barack[ Obama] was able to do, ” he said. “I think even if we didn’t do well in Iowa, we’re still lane in the game in terms of where we are on Super Tuesday and where we’ll is in conformity with South Carolina and Nevada. I are certain about those two, and I don’t see something profoundly shifting.”

“The reason why it’s so important in Iowa — if the reverse happened, if I were to come in here and win this … and then do well in New Hampshire. Then what stops it? ”

Even a now-former Harris campaign aide said Biden was more resilient than her squad predicted.

“Look, Biden is a lot tougher than all of us demonstrated recognition for, ” the aide said. “And the fact is that the ballots don’t lie. He’s went solid the assistance provided by the[ African American] society. Now is he unbeatable? No. But I don’t determine Cory[ Booker] or Deval[ Patrick] procreating it or vastly trimming into his support with African Americans.”

Article originally published on POLITICO Magazine

Read more: politico.com

Joe Biden Comes to Reality, Blurts Out Sentence His Supporters Have LONG Waited To Hear


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Ian Hanchett from Breitbart reports, While speaking in South Carolina on Wednesday, 2020 Democratic presidential applicant onetime Vice President Joe Biden predicted that if the economy continues to decline, President Trump’s behavior will become worse and stated that “we can’t exactly expedition to beat Donald Trump.”

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