Abbreviated Pundit Round-up: Israeli elections and movement in Democratic primaries

Abbreviated Pundit Round-up: Israeli elections and movement in Democratic primaries




Haaretz 😛 TAGEND

Israel Election 2019: Netanyahu Fails to Secure Majority, Gantz Leads, Arabs Surge, Exit Polls Show

Two exit polls register Kahol Lavan overtaking Likud, one ballot has them held# Labour party, Democratic Union make it in# Kahanist party mopped off political map

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Early signalings advocate @Netanyahu overestimated – targeting #Arab voters exclusively displayed gargantuan #Arab turnout while he seems to have failed to swallow fairly right-wing voters to fix #Likud largest defendant. Information that #Putin cured him more than #Trump had to be major disappointment.

— Robert Satloff (@ robsatloff) September 17, 2019

Here is the Putin reference 😛 TAGEND

His ties to Putin, in particular, are participated by him as important in drawing in elects from Israel’s huge society of Russian speakers.

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BREAKING: In first announce ballots speech Netanyahu refuses to concede. blames the media for biased coverage

— Barak Ravid (@ BarakRavid) September 18, 2019

Since establishing a bloc is who “wins”, it will be a while before we know who that is. There are lots of moving areas. Netanyahu rivals terribly dislike one another, and unity moves may lose them electing members. Of route, they acutely shun him as well, so – _( tsu) _ /-. We won’t know who triumphed for a while( think in days, perhaps weeks ). But it’s clear that Netanyahu lost his bid for a majority.

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With 90% of the vote weighed: -Gantz’s Kahol Lavan 32 -Netanyahu’s Likud 31 -The Joint List 13 -Yisrael Beiteinu 9-Shas 9-United Torah Judaism 8 -Yamina 7-Labor-Gesher 6-Democratic Union 5https :// t.co/ rKJ2enbn 2J

— Haaretz.com (@ haaretzcom) September 18, 2019

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We won’t really know until tomorrow how many sets everyone has.Then we have to see if Lieberman recommends Gantz or Unity and if Joint List says Gantz or None.So still 1-4 periods from knowing who will go first even

— ((( Will Cubbison ))) A–A* A–A* A–A( tm) A–Aoe A–ASSA–A’A–A( tm) A–A! A–A* A–AY (@ wccubbison) September 18, 2019

Closer to home from NBC 😛 TAGEND

NBC/ WSJ ballot: Biden induces Dem 2020 province, Warren’s supporter grows

While Biden reigns among more moderate Democrats and black voters, Warren overperforms among whites and radicals.

The survey too shows that Warren has the advantage in ebullience, and that she gets the most second-choice support.

Biden leads the overall horse race with endorse from 31 percentage of Democratic primary voters( up 5 points since July ), while Warren does 25 percent( up 6 objects ).

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NEW: NBC News/ Wall street Journal ballot: – Biden: 31% (+ 5 since July) – Warren: 25% (+ 6) – Sanders: 14% (+ 1) – Buttigieg: 7%( even) – Harris: 5%( -8) – Yang: 4% (+ 2) – Klobuchar: 2% (+ 1) – Booker: 2% (+ 1) BUT exclusively 9% say their intellects are definitely made up.

— Alex Seitz-Wald (@ aseitzwald) September 17, 2019

AP :

Don’t vote? The Trump campaign would like a word with you

In Michigan, which Trump carried by 11,000 referendums, there is opportunity in places such as the GOP stronghold of Ottawa County west of Grand Rapids. As countless as 50,000 eligible voters didn’t cast ballots in 2016, according to an Associated Press analysis of voter data, and Trump won the county by a 2-to-1 margin.

But if Trump’s strategy is to pay off, his allies have a lot more work to do. Between 2016 and 2018, Michigan provinces that backed Trump in 2016 lent more than 44,000 people who were eligible to vote, but voter enrollments enhanced by exactly 622 people.

Trump can’t turn out all the eligible voters, and there’s no guarantee that those they do reach will vote for Trump. But the president’s team is speculation that raising more voters in will pack more of a perforate than altering the ballot-going faithful.

So Trump is turnout, to hell with persuasion. But…

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Here’s why the “let’s win without working-class whites” mentality doesn’t hold water for Dems. That demog comprises 45% of all eligible U.S. voters, but: 61% in Wisconsin6 1% in New Hampshire5 6% in Michigan5 6% in Minnesota5 6% in Pennsylvania4 7% in North CarolinaGood luck.

— Dave Wasserman (@ Redistrict) September 16, 2019

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Dems’ path to beating Trump perfectly depends on retaining the increases they realise in diverse, college-educated burbs – the kinds we discovered in 2018& #NC09.But even a slight discontinue among white non-college voters could negate all of it, given the demog’s size& geographic distribution.

— Dave Wasserman (@ Redistrict) September 16, 2019

Philip Bump/ WaPo 😛 TAGEND

A primary 2020 question for Democrat: How critical are working-class white-hot voters?

If that’s the lawsuit, why ruffle trying to win over those working-class voters?

Wasserman’s point is that degree subjects. In precede tweets, he notes that there’s a link between the states that Trump snapped in 2016 and the concentration of their working-class white populations.

We can envisage that pretty clearly. As the concentration of working-class whites among the over-1 8 person in a state increased, so did the perimeter by which it elevated Trump in 2016. It’s not a excellent correlation, but it’s a robust one.

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This turned out to be the spotlight of the hearing far and away, but it came five hours in, after tv had turned away and narratives been mostly written. I hope the committee members will set their self-love aside and let counseling qAC/ AEURA( tm) s kick off the hearing next time. https :// t.co/ LyYshP1hHC

— Matthew Miller (@ matthewamiller) September 17, 2019

G Elliott Morris :

Could Donald Trump’s presidency be creating a generation of Democrat? Plus, which 2020 Democrat is closest to the median voter? And will that matter?

Just like these storages stick with us, so too do the demeanours we are taught. And there is an entire group of young people whose first political caches, whose first attitudes, are about Donald Trump. And those outlooks will stick with them long after he’s gone. Given that the president is so unpopular, I guess many of those stances will be negative.

“But Elliott”, you might be saying, “people’s political predilections change over time! ” That’s rightly correct, but the aggregate the consequences of temporal political socialization persevere. It’s not so much better that parties start out as radical and originate to become conservatives, despite what Winston Churchill might have you believe( provided below ), but that an age group’s baseline political reclines are decided by the political events that occur while they grow up.

“If a man is not a socialist by the time he is 20, he has no heart. If he is not a republican by the time he is 40, he has no brain.” — Winston Churchill

This theory is substantiated by research from political scientists/ statisticians Yair Ghitza and Andrew Gelman. In a 2014 paper designation “The Great Society, Reagan’s Revolution and Contemporaries of Presidential Voting” the authors offer empirical evidence for the “running tally” theory of political socialization–that is, that people are introduced to political notions over hour, and “keep score” about their relative pro- or anti-Republican/ Democratic sentiments until they are “locked-in”. They also is my finding that our youth years are a critical part of this “running tally” process 😛 TAGEND




“The political events circumventing the formative times around 14 -2 4 are of paramount importance in structuring life-long presidential voting likings [….] incidents Eem to have created five wide-ranging contemporaries of voters — voters born in the 1930 s or early( pro-Democrat ); 1941( Republican ); 1952( Democrat ); 1968( Republican ); and the 1980 s or last-minute( Democrat ). ”

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I said this earlier, but I envisage the most significant development in recent polling is that Warren, while continuing to move far behind Biden , now clearly has a pulse with pitch-black voters.

— Steve Kornacki (@ SteveKornacki) September 17, 2019

Alex Burns /NY Times 😛 TAGEND

Warren and Trump Speeches Lay Out Competing Visions of Populism

In New York, Senator Elizabeth Warren described a government accommodation by the influence of the rich. President Trump, in New Mexico, castigated a “failed liberal establishment.”

The two back-to-back residences laid out the vying versions of populism that could come to define the presidential campaign. From the privilege, there is the strain Mr. Trump brought to maturity in 2016, blending the longstanding grudges of the white working class with a newer, darker angst about immigration and cultural change. And on the left, there is a vastly different populist wave still gaining fortitude, defined in economic terms by Ms. Warren, Democrat of Massachusetts, and Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont.

The meanings stressed the opportunities that the 2020 poll could be the first in a generation to be fought without an ally of either party’s centrist establishment on the ballot. While it is by no means certain that Ms. Warren will emerge as the Democratic nominee, two of her party’s top three candidates — Ms. Warren and Mr. Sanders — are trumpeting the main theme of fiscal prejudice and promises of sweeping political and social reform.

Hey guys, I don’t think we’ll make KY( though there are good numeralsin the Senate race )…

Tony Fabrizio is a GOP pollster who polled for Trump in 2016

…but NC, CO, MN and AZ are looking okay.

WaPo :

Farm bailout money likely to be included in stopgap spending bill amid stres from moderate House Democrats

Democrats are likely to include legislation that would expedite payment of these funds as part of a must-pass spending bill as soon as this week.

The beings spoke on the condition of anonymity because they weren’t authorized to discuss internal deliberations.

The provision in question would now ensure the continuation of a multibillion-dollar White House farm bailout program that was at risk of guiding short of money. The Washington Post reported last week that House Allotment Chairwoman Nita M. Lowey( D-N.Y .) was proposing to block the bailout planned as she and other lawmakers worked to finalize a short-term spending bill aimed at preventing a government shutdown Oct. 1.

Lowey and other House Democratic leads were trying to draft a “clean” spending bill to extend government funding through Nov. 21 without including many extraneous problems. However, a number of moderate House Democrats, including the heads of state of the Agriculture Committee, objected, suggesting that the spending bill include language safeguarding the farm bailout program, which was created last year after complaints from farm radicals that Trump’s transactions conflict with China was hurting raise country.

A reminder that the corrupt Brazilian Bolsinaro brothers( JBS ), among other multinationals are dense in the middle of this, and not all the money goes to American farmers.

WaPo :

Trump is siding Democrats “todays opening” on the economy The transaction crusade and spotty emergence are giving Democrat an opportunity to attack.

Democrats hear germinating foiling with Trump’s trade policies. While Americans largely agree with Trump that the United Mood needs to push China to be a better trading partner, exclusively 35 percent of adults approve of Trump’s handling of trade negotiations with China, according to a Washington Post-ABC News polltaken this month. Fifty-six percent of American adults disapprove.

“The president clearly has no strategy, ” said Pete Buttigieg, the mayor of South Bend, Ind ., in the most recent Democratic presidential debate. “I’d like to see him making a is working with[ Chinese President] Xi Jinping. Is it just me, or was that supposed to happen in, like, April? ”

Strategists say the more that Democrats can hold up trade as another example of Trump’s irregular — and economically destructive — behavior, the more their attacks will likely resonate.

Some support here for that, though it’s a single tally in limited moods 😛 TAGEND

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New poll by Priorities USA registers generic Dem with near double-digit induce over DT in battleground states hard hit by Trump economy. https :// t.co/ 1b1WwUOmyu

— Mike Klonsky (@ mikeklonsky) September 16, 2019

And now for something dumb 😛 TAGEND

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Consider the priorities here.Weakening of releases criteria is delayed. Staff is struggling to “prepare legal or technical rationales for it.”But WH will proceed with punishing CA for now.Trump “wanted to press forward with a program that would penalize California.” https :// t.co/ Lgdkl4HbZF

— Greg Sargent (@ ThePlumLineGS) September 18, 2019

And now for something genuinely dumb 😛 TAGEND

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Why … really … why? Who thought it was a good idea to go after an LGBTQ Democratic Senator in a violet district? People have been so blinded by Trump. You know what? We talk a great deal about Trumpism as a worship of ideology and not enough about anti-Trumpism as a( yes, lesser) cult.

— G. Elliott Morris (@ gelliottmorris) September 18, 2019

Whatever happened to “don’t do stupid stuff”? This from the Hill 😛 TAGEND

Dan O’Neal, the territory coordinator for Progressive Democrats of America, told the news outlet that the denunciation is an effort to push Sinema back toward the left.

“Here’s the thing: We truly aid Kyrsten Sinema, we want her to succeed, we want her to be the best senator in the country, ” O’Neal said. “But the route she is voting is really disappointing. We demand Democrats to vote like Democrats and not Republicans.”

The progressive caucus of the state party summarized its conclude in a resolution.

FiveThirtyEight’s Trump Tracker found that Sinema has defended Trump during her time in the Senate 81 percent of the time. During her time in the House, where she served three periods, she patronized Trump’s agenda 54% of the time.

Felecia Rotellini, the Arizona Democratic Party’s chairwoman, said the censure will be heard but is unsure it will pass.

How dumb is that? This foolish 😛 TAGEND

Politico :

‘The ground is shifting’: Arizona emerges as a 2020 trouble spot for Trump

Democrats appear to have their best shot at capturing the regime since Bill Clinton won it more than two decades ago

“Can’t Anybody Here Play This Game? ”~ Casey Stengel

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Corey Lewandowski’s grudging, impudent testament before the House Judiciary Committee may have wound up bolstering Nancy Pelosi’s hands-off approach to impeachment. https :// t.co/ UowKpwRPEe

— Axios (@ axios) September 18, 2019

Apparently not, Casey. Well, looking forward and not back 😛 TAGEND

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Elizabeth Warren has become the most broadly-acceptable candidate in the Democratic field7 0% of Democratic primary voters say theyAC/ AEURA( tm) re enthusiastic or pleasant with her, while 21% have bookings or are uncomfortableBiden: 64%/ 35% Bernie: 62%/ 37% https :// t.co/ yGkWEm1WUK

— John Harwood (@ JohnJHarwood) September 17, 2019

apr

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